Liu Shangxi: GDP may increase by 5 this year.4%, deficit monetized non-flood beasts

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Liu Shangxi: GDP may increase by 5 this year.4%, deficit monetized non-flood beasts

Liu Shangxi: GDP may increase by 5 this year.4%, deficit monetized non-flood beasts
On May 22, the 2020 “Government Work Report” was freshly released.Sauna Night Network held a series of national “two sessions economic strategy” salons to challenge the Chinese economy, invited members of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, former chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission Xiao Gang, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, former vice chairman of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission Zhou Yanli, deputy director of the National Committee of the CPPCC Economic Committee Liu ShijinLiu Shangxi, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and dean of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, interpreted the economic growth and fiscal and monetary policies.In the connection, Liu Shangxi said that the government work report puts the deficit rate at 3.Above 6%, the nominal expansion of GDP that can be initiated may be 5.About 4%, the actual actual may be 2% -3%; 2 trillion direct access to cities and counties, local governments with basic financial capacity can better participate in the central government’s decision-making deployment; “Housing, housing and no speculation” policy has been continuous, accompanied by urbanAs the level of economicization increases, consideration should be given to increasing the construction of low-rent housing; now is a special period, and the monetization of deficits can become one of the options for monetary policy operations.The goal of economic growth is within the employment rate target. Liu Shangxi said that although the government work report this year did not propose a GDP growth target, the deficit rate level can be reversed through the employment level.The government work report puts the deficit rate at 3.Above 6%, the nominal expansion of GDP that can be initiated may be 5.About 4%, the actual actual may be between 2% and 3%, and the economic growth expectation from the deficit rate should be positive growth.Moreover, to achieve positive growth, we can complete the task of replenishing 9 million employed people.”It is not a matter of ignoring economic growth, or an expected consideration of economic growth.”Liu Shangxi said that there is a lot of uncertainty in the development of the epidemic, so it is necessary to change the thinking of economic work.The previous thinking has always put economic growth first, and employment first this year. In fact, if the employment rate target can be achieved, the goal of economic growth will be in it.He believes that seizing employment is a correct choice. Employment is not only related to economic development, but also the interface between economy and society.  This also embodies a new understanding and thinking.Liu Shangxi said that traditional economics believes that there must be economic growth before employment, but under the existing new economic environment, employment upgrading may become the internal driving force of economic growth.People used to look for work, but now people can create jobs. There are many examples of this in the Internet age.Under the conditions of digitalization and platformization, in fact, many jobs can be created, and innovation and entrepreneurship can promote employment.Therefore, putting employment in the first place creates a good environment and conditions for various forms of employment, especially flexible employment under the Internet, so that everyone has more opportunities to create jobs for themselves, which in itself can drive economic growth.The relationship between economy and employment has gradually broken the textbook’s argument. There are many new practices in the new era, and it is also an era that is subverting traditional theories.  Liu Shangxi said that, without mentioning specific economic growth targets, putting employment in the first place may also become a routine practice in the future.  2 trillion direct access to cities and counties, maintaining local financial capacity Liu Shangxi said that the distortion expects the scale of special national debt from a package perspective to be 5 trillion, but 5 trillion is to consider all factors, the only special national debt to resist the disease itself, evenAlso consider adjusting local special debts in a package plan.This government work report has greatly expanded the scale of local special debts, and the special national debt for anti-epidemic need not be so large.Liu Shangxi said that overall, the scale of the accumulation of special national debt did not fall far from the original expectations.After all, the scale of government bond issuance reached 8 this year.5 trillion, this goal is not small.The impact of these government bond issuances on the capital market must be fully estimated, such as liquidity and interest rates.  Liu Shangxi said that the 2 trillion proposed in this government work report must go directly to the city and county, because the city and county finances are most affected by the epidemic. According to this, they understand that many cities and counties have experienced a 50% decline in fiscal revenue.The localities are facing very great difficulties, so it is necessary to focus on maintaining the local financial capacity. Only with basic financial capacity can the local central government make better decision-making and deployment. Focusing on the six guarantees, this is also 2 trillion through special transfer payments.The reason why the mechanism reaches the city directly.This is a very targeted policy arrangement in response to the current epidemic situation, where different places are affected differently.  With the increase in the level of urbanization, we should consider increasing the construction of low-rent housing. This year’s government work report revisited “no housing, no speculation”, and mentioned “giving provincial governments the autonomy to use construction land.”In this regard, Liu Shangxi said that the “housing and housing is not speculation” policy has been continuous. Although the economy was negatively affected by the epidemic, it has not changed this positioning. The healthy development of the real estate market will be guaranteed under this positioning.  He also mentioned that the real estate market should be considered in the context of urbanization.The current urbanization level has just exceeded 60%, and the level is still lower than before, and it needs to be further improved.In the next step, the entire economic spatial form will change to a state dominated by central cities and metropolitan areas. There is no doubt that urbanization will also spatially change the existing distribution of houses, so that more and more peasant families go to the city.Therefore, through the increase in the urbanization rate, urban housing demand will expand, and old rural houses will be idle, including homesteads.  ”I am afraid that the new changes brought about by this space replacement are not repeating the old way of the past.For example, if migrant workers ca n’t afford a house at the current housing price, they need to increase the construction of low-rent housing, so that people who move into the city have a house, which is the next step in housing policy.”Liu Shangxi’s mortality rate, the overall supply of housing has increased, and the proportion of fully marketized housing will decline, but overall, housing as a consumer product should be marketized, and the basic direction should not be changed.”Is outstanding. It is unrealistic for a large number of middle- and low-income people to buy a large number of houses. Therefore, it is necessary to work on low-rent housing and guarantee housing scale so that they can keep up with urbanization.  Monetization of deficits can be one of the options for monetary policy operations Liu Shangxi once again talked about the topic of monetization of fiscal deficits.He said that the monetization of the fiscal deficit has long existed in reality. About once in 1997 and one in 2007, one was to inject capital into commercial banks, and the second was to set up a CIC company. In fact, the deficit was monetized.The practice, but did not take any form of direct purchase, but borrowed from a commercial bank, from the perspective of the form is not a monetization of the deficit, but it is monetized, which had little impact on the financial market at that time.The shed reform is actually a monetization of the deficit, because the funds are given to the CDB, which is operated by the CDB. However, the shed reform has a strong public welfare and is not a completely market-oriented behavior.He believes that the talk about deficit monetization depends on both form and substance. In the public domain or projects with strong public attributes, through transfer operations, although there is no financial participation and no budget, but from the perspective of the country as a whole, it is stillMonetization of the deficit is only relatively invisible.  Liu Shangxi said that the implementation of the monetization of the fiscal deficit is under certain circumstances, and now is also a special period, there is enough, but whether to make such a choice, that is necessary to replace multiple factors and high-level decision-making.In fact, there are strict legal procedures for the monetization of fiscal deficits. Government departments cannot do whatever they want. Monetization of deficits is not a “wild horse” under the requirements of the statutory budget. In fact, it is easy to control risks in the clear.In addition to the legal constraints, the finance also has market constraints. The market will constrain the scale of debt issuance and financing costs.  In theory, many countries have issued a lot of currencies, and the currency stock has multiplied, but there has been no hyperinflation. This means that traditional monetary theory, especially the quantity theory of money, may not be fully applicable to today’s situation.Liu Shangxi believes that the current currency should not only focus on quantity, but also on status.In the past, observing liquidity only looked at quantity, and its condition was currency homogeneity.In the quantity theory of money, money is homogeneous, but to explain the current phenomenon, the assumption of homogeneity may be unreasonable, and adjustment is necessary.The state of the currency, especially the state of the holder, has a great influence on liquidity.The traditional monetary policy theory needs to be updated, and the relationship between the deficit and the currency also needs to have a new understanding, which cannot be viewed in accordance with the traditional concept, so that it may be “conventional and incomplete.”  Liu Shangxi concluded that the monetization of the fiscal deficit already exists in practice, and further discussion is needed in theory.Therefore, the monetization of the deficit can become one of the options in the future operation of monetary policy, and there will be no situation of “cannot take it once the gate is opened”.He said: “Don’t think of the monetization of fiscal deficits as a beast of floods, just like discussing deficits in the 1980s is harmful and harmless. At that time, most of the views were that deficits are harmful, but now, most old-fashioned ones have deficits. Of course, deficits are not unlimited.One degree of control, and the monetization of the deficit also have a degree of control.”Reporter Gu Zhijuan Cheng Weimiao editor Sun Yong

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